Fed officials are now considering fewer rate cuts this year

Americans hamstrung by high borrowing costs on car loans, mortgages and credit cards shouldn’t expect much of a break this year.

Americans hamstrung by high borrowing costs on car loans, mortgages and credit cards shouldn’t expect much of a break this year.

That’s because some Federal Reserve officials are reconsidering forecasts they made three months ago that called for three rate cuts this year.

Currently, the Fed’s target interest rate is between 5.25% and 5.5%, a 23-year high. Four of the 19 officials on the rate-setting committee now see rates staying above 5% this year, implying one or no rate cuts, according to new economic projections from last week’s meeting. Meanwhile, in December, three officials saw rates staying above 5%. On the opposite end, just one official — compared to five previously — sees rates dipping below 4.5%, implying four cuts.

 

The stakes are high because there are consequences if the Fed cuts rates soon or if it leaves rates where they’ve been for the past eight months.

If the central bank cuts prematurely, it could risk losing its grip on inflation, which hasn’t yet returned to its 2% target. But if the Fed waits too long to cut, high interest rates could further punish Americans and the economy by potentially triggering a recession.

Beyond their official projections, various officials have also been making their case in public speeches and media appearances on how the Fed should approach the difficult task of when to begin cutting interest rates.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, currently a voting member on the Fed’s rate-setting committee, went as far as to suggest that the central bank should only cut rates once this year.

“The economy continues to deliver surprises and it continues to be more resilient and more energized than I had forecast or projected,” Bostic said last week. That’s why he said he revised his belief that the central bank should cut rates twice this year to once.


Steve Jean

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